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Abstract
HIV prevalence is rising and has been consistently higher among women in Rwanda whereas a decreasing national HIV prevalence rate in the adult population has stabilised since 2005. Factors explaining the increased vulnerability of women to HIV infection are not currently well understood. A statistical mapping at smaller geographic units and the identification of key HIV risk factors are crucial for pragmatic and more efficient interventions. The data used in this study were extracted from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data for 6952 women. A full Bayesian geo-additive logistic regression model was fitted to data in order to assess the effect of key risk factors and map district-level spatial effects on the risk of HIV infection. The results showed that women who had STIs, concurrent sexual partners in the 12 months prior to the survey, a sex debut at earlier age than 19 years, were living in a woman-headed or high-economic status household were significantly associated with a higher risk of HIV infection. There was a protective effect of high HIV knowledge and perception. Women occupied in agriculture, and those residing in rural areas were also associated with lower risk of being infected. This study provides district-level maps of the variation of HIV infection among women of child-bearing age in Rwanda. The maps highlight areas where women are at a higher risk of infection; the aspect that proximate and distal factors alone could not uncover. There are distinctive geographic patterns, although statistically insignificant, of the risk of HIV infection suggesting potential effectiveness of district specific interventions. The results also suggest that changes in sexual behaviour can yield significant results in controlling HIV infection in Rwanda.
Highlights
Global disparities in the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have been reported repeatedly [1,2,3,4]
The p-values for the tests for associations of each selected risk factor and the HIV test result are presented in the last column of Table 2
The univariate variable selection procedure suggested that the sex of the household head, woman’s age, marital status, religion, household’s economic status, place of residence, woman’s occupation, HIV knowledge-perception, HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related stigma, recent occurrence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), age at first sexual intercourse, recent concurrent sexual partners had a statistically significant association with the woman’s HIV test result
Summary
Global disparities in the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have been reported repeatedly [1,2,3,4]. It is estimated that 69% of all people living with HIV and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are in sub-Saharan Africa [3], where 1 in every 20 adults (4.9%) is living with HIV and the majority of them are women [2]. Statistical Mapping of HIV Infection among Women in Rwanda. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
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