Bayesian Inference for Estimating Heat Sources Through Temperature Assimilation

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Abstract This paper utilizes a Bayesian inference framework to address the two-dimensional (2D) steady-state heat conduction problem, focusing on the estimation of unknown distributed heat sources in a thermally conducting medium with uniform conductivity. The goal is to infer the locations, strength, and shape of heaters by assimilating temperature data in Euclidean space, employing a Fourier series to represent each heater's shape. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, incorporating the random-walk Metropolis–Hasting (MH) algorithm and parallel tempering, is utilized for posterior distribution exploration in both unbounded and wall-bounded domains. It is found that multiple solutions arise in cases where the number of temperature sensors is less than the number of unknown states. Moreover, smaller heaters introduce greater uncertainty in estimated strength. To address the challenge of estimating the heater's strength and shape simultaneously due to their strong correlation, our method incorporates sharp priors on one to ensure accurate and feasible solutions of the other. The diffusive nature of heat conduction smooths out any deformations in the temperature contours, especially in the presence of multiple heaters positioned near each other, impacting convergence. In wall-bounded domains with Neumann boundary conditions, the inference of heater parameters tends to be more accurate than in unbounded domains.