Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for the estimation of pyrolysis parameter S1

Abstract

A Gaussian mixture Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) Bayesian method has been developed for the inversion of petrophysical parameters such as pyrolysis parameter S1, which is driven by a statistical shale rock-physics model. Pyrolysis parameter S1 can be used to indicate the content of free or adsorbed hydrocarbons in source rock, and it is an important indicator to evaluate the production of shale oil reservoirs. However, most studies on pyrolysis parameters are based on pyrolysis experiments and there is no relevant study to inverse pyrolysis parameter S1 from seismic data. In addition, compared to the total organic carbon content, pyrolysis S1 is more accurate for evaluating gas and oil in shale. In particular, high values of pyrolysis S1 can directly indicate the content of shale oil. We have developed a strategy for assessing shale oil sweet spots through estimating pyrolysis S1 and other petrophysical parameters. Based on the Gaussian mixture assumptions for the prior distribution of the model, we build a joint distribution to link the pyrolysis parameter S1 with elastic attributes, and then we derive a formulation to inverse S1 with the Bayesian model. Due to the components of the Gaussian mixture, the HMC method has been used to sample the posterior distribution. Our study finds that the HMC method for sampling can improve the efficiency and allow a more robust quantification of the uncertainty; also, application to real seismic data sets indicates that the delineation of sweet spots is more accurate combined with pyrolysis S1.