Bayesian frameworks for integrating QRA and SRA methods

Abstract

Lately there has been an increasing interest in using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods in Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The Bayesian approach seems to be the most applied framework for the integrated analyses. It is, however, not clear what the Bayesian approach really means. There exist alternative Bayesian approaches, and the integration of SRA methods and QRA is very much dependent on what is the basis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a clarification and give some guidance with respect to the choice of approach. The starting point is our experience from the petroleum sector, but the discussion is to large extent general. We conclude that the most suitable framework for integrating SRA methods in QRA is to adopt the “fully Bayesian approach” with focus on observable quantities and use of subjective probabilities.