Bayesian estimation of social welfare and tax progressivity measures

Abstract

This paper examines Bayesian methods of examining posterior distributions of inequality, concentration, tax progressivity and social welfare measures. Use is made of an explicit income distribution assumption and two alternative assumptions regarding the distribution of pre-tax mean incomes within each income group. The methods are applied to a simulated distribution of individual incomes and tax payments. It is possible to identify a minimum acceptable number of income classes to be used. The results suggest support for the use of group means in practical applications, particularly where large sample sizes are available.