Bayesian Decision Making of an Imperfect Debugging Software Reliability Growth Model with Consideration of Debuggers’ Learning and Negligence Factors

Abstract

In this study, an imperfect debugging software reliability growth model (SRGM) with Bayesian analysis was proposed to determine an optimal software release in order to minimize software testing costs and also enhance the practicability. Generally, it is not easy to estimate the model parameters by applying MLE (maximum likelihood estimation) or LSE (least squares estimation) with insufficient historical data. Therefore, in the situation of insufficient data, the proposed Bayesian method can adopt domain experts’ prior judgments and utilize few software testing data to forecast the reliability and the cost to proceed with the prior analysis and the posterior analysis. Moreover, the debugging efficiency involves testing staff’s learning and negligent factors, and therefore, the human factors and the nature of debugging process are taken into consideration in developing the fundamental model. Based on this, the estimation of the model’s parameters would be more intuitive and can be easily evaluated by domain experts, which is the major advantage for extending the related applications in practice. Finally, numerical examples and sensitivity analyses are performed to provide managerial insights and useful directions for software release strategies.