Bayesian cure fraction models with measurement error in the scale mixture of normal distribution.

Abstract

Cure fraction models have been widely used to model time-to-event data when part of the individuals survives long-term after disease and are considered cured. Most cure fraction models neglect the measurement error that some covariates may experience which leads to poor estimates for the cure fraction. We introduce a Bayesian promotion time cure model that accounts for both mismeasured covariates and atypical measurement errors. This is attained by assuming a scale mixture of the normal distribution to describe the uncertainty about the measurement error. Extending previous works, we also assume that the measurement error variance is unknown and should be estimated. Three classes of prior distributions are assumed to model the uncertainty about the measurement error variance. Simulation studies are performed evaluating the proposed model in different scenarios and comparing it to the standard promotion time cure fraction model. Results show that the proposed models are competitive ones. The proposed model is fitted to analyze a dataset from a melanoma clinical trial assuming that the Breslow depth is mismeasured.