Bayesian Block Structure Sparse Based T–S Fuzzy Modeling for Dynamic Prediction of Hot Metal Silicon Content in the Blast Furnace

Abstract

Since the hot metal silicon content simultaneously reflects the product quality and the thermal state of the blast furnace, its modeling is crucial and representative. In order to facilitate the realization of control, this paper proposes a Bayesian block structure sparse based Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy modeling method, with which the main important fuzzy rules and the corresponding pivotal consequent parameters can be selected automatically to obtain a compact fuzzy model with good generalization performance. For being conjugate to the Gaussian likelihood that would lead to the associated Bayesian inference to be performed in closed form, a hierarchy of block structure sparse priori is adopted, and the variational Bayesian inference is used to solve it. The screening of model inputs and data processing appropriately consider the characteristics of the blast furnace process. The applicability and performance of the proposed method are demonstrated on no. 2 blast furnace of Liuzhou Steel in China.