Bayesian Behavior Scoring Model

Abstract

Although many scoring models have been developed in literature to offer financial institutions guidance in credit granting decision, the pur pose of most scoring models are to improve their discrimination ability, not their explanatory ability. Therefore, the conventional scoring models can only provide limited information in the relationship among customer de mographics, default risk, and credit card attributes, such as APR (annual percentage rate) and credit limits. In this paper, a Bayesian behavior scor ing model is proposed to help financial institutions identify factors which truly reflect customer value and can affect default risk. To illustrate the proposed model, we applied it to the credit cardholder database provided by one major bank in Taiwan. The empirical results show that increasing APR will raise the default probability greatly. Single cardholders are less accountable for credit card repayment. High income, female, or cardholders with higher education are more likely to have good repayment ability.