Bayesian automated weighting of aggregated DFT, MD, and experimental data for candidate thermodynamic models of aluminum with uncertainty quantification

Abstract

Atomic-scale modeling methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) can predict the thermodynamic properties of materials at a lower cost than experimental measurements. However, their regular usage in thermodynamic model construction is hampered by the lack of quantitative agreement with experimental measurements and the lack of uncertainty estimates on the data. To make regular usage of this atomistic simulation data, it is important to assess whether the atomistic simulation datasets, by themselves or in combination with experimental measurements, result in the same physics-informed models best supported by experimental measurements alone. In this work, models of aluminum thermodynamic properties are discussed using three data sources: atomistic calculations (DFT and MD), experiments, and a combination of atomistic calculations and experiments. The study shows that, after ensuring self-consistency in predicting key invariant points, both experimental measurements and atomistic calculations can significantly contribute to an optimal model.