Bayesian and regression models of human information processing—A myopic perspective

Abstract

When Jim Naylor asked me to write an introduction to the magnificent paper by Paul Slovic and Sarah Lichtenstein that forms the body of this issue of Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, I wasn't quite sure whether to thank him or hit him (so I did both). His motive was obvious: the Slovic-Lichtenstein paper isn't quite long enough to fill the issue, but is too long to be combined with an honest paper on a different subject. Moreover, he knew I would accept: their paper is much too good for me to pass up the chance to bask in their reflected glory. But the invitation led me to reflect on the ages of scientists. The new FhD is too busy doing experiments to bother reading broadly; also, he had to do too much of that too recently, and is sick of it. That's Age 1. Age 2 comes when the scientist matures, which means that he becomes responsible for enough experimental literature to generate contradictions and opponents. These, he has no choice but to read, and in trying to discover why he was right all along he may read quite widely--even desperately. The apex of this stage is reached when he has invested so much time in reading that he must again (for the first time since graduate school) report what he has read, in the process spanking friends and soothing enemies. That is how papers like Slovie and Lichtenstein's are generated. In Age 3, contradictions become less important, mostly because one becomes too busy to generate the facts that generate contradictions. At that stage, one tends to generate points of view, usually miscalled theories. If one is lucky, either at generating ideas or at attracting money, research gets structured around these points of view. Finally, at Age 4, one is too senile for any of these other activities, so one writes histories, introductions, committee reports, and the like. While there is a certain numerical .iustice in my entering Age 4 at age 44, I'm not at all sure I forgive Jim Naylor for spotting the transition. Well, I might as well indulge myself in the privileges of age; the most enjoyable of these is that of pointing out the importance of history. (That's enjoyable because the historian can thus once again call attention