Bayesian analysis of two diagnostic methods for paediatric ringworm infections in a teaching hospital

Abstract

Quantitatively, conventional methods of diagnosis of tinea capitis or paediatric ringworm, microscopic and culture tests were evaluated with Bayes rule. This analysis would help in quantifying the pervasive errors in each diagnostic method, particularly the microscopic method, as a long-term treatment would be involved to eradicate the infection by the use of a particular antifungal chemotherapy. Secondly, the analysis of clinical data would help in obtaining digitally the fallible standard of the microscopic test method, as the culture test method is taken as gold standard. Test results of 51paediatric patients were of 4categories: 21 samples were true positive (both tests positive), and 13 were true negative; the rest samples comprised both 14 false positive (microscopic test positivity with culture test negativity) and 3 false negative (microscopic test negativity with culture test positivity) samples. The prevalence of tinea infection was 47.01% in the population of 51children. The microscopic test of a sample was efficient by 87.5%, in arriving at a positive result on diagnosis, when its culture test was positive; and, this test was efficient by 76.4%, in arriving at a negative result, when its culture test was negative. But, the post-test probability value of a sample with both microscopic and culture tests would be correct in distinguishing a sample from a sick or a healthy child with a chance of 71.5%. However, since the sensitivity of the analysis is 87.5%, the microscopic test positivity would be easier to detect in the presence of infection. In conclusion, it could be stated that Trychophyton rubrum was the most prevalent species; sensitivity and specificity of treating the infection, by antifungal therapy before ascertaining by the culture method remain as 0.8751 and 0.7642, respectively. A correct/coveted diagnostic method of fungal infection would be could be achieved by modern molecular methods (matrix-assisted laser desorption ionisation-time of flight mass spectrometry or fluorescence in situ hybridization or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA] or restriction fragment length polymorphism or DNA/RNA probes of known fungal taxa) in advanced laboratories.