Bayes Estimates of Variations of the Duration of the Navigation Period Along the Northern Sea Route in the XXI Century from Simulations with Ensemble of Climate Models

Abstract

In the 21st century, a significant increase in the duration of the navigation period on the Northern Sea Route is expected. This is due to the stronger warming of the climate in the Arctic. Current climate models are characterized by considerable uncertainty in the sensitivity of the characteristics of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to current climate changes. In order to take into account, the uncertainty of the results of numerical calculations for models, together with the uncertainty of the observational data, Bayesian analysis methods are used. This paper analyzes the changes in the duration of the navigation period (NPD) on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model ensemble under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) anthropogenic scenarios using Bayesian statistics. For various scenarios of anthropogenic impact, it was found that the expected duration of the navigation period on the Northern Sea Route will be 2–3 months by the middle of the XXI century and 3–6 months by its end.