Baveno criteria perform better than expanded Baveno and Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-Hepatitis C virus criteria for predicting varices needing treatment.

Abstract

Endoscopy is the gold standard for the detection and staging of varices. Baveno, expanded Baveno, and Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-hepatitis C virus (RESIST-HCV) criteria predict varices non-invasively in patients with cirrhosis. We assessed the performance of these criteria for predicting varices needing treatment (VNT). Consecutive patients with compensated cirrhosis due to viral etiologies evaluated between January 2014 and May 2017 were included in this retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database. VNTs were defined as either large varies or small varices with red color signs on endoscopy. Performance characteristics to predict VNTs were estimated for the three criteria and spared endoscopy rate (SER) and missed VNT rates were determined. Two hundred andninety-five treatment-naïve cirrhosis patients, etiology hepatitis B (n = 154) or hepatitis C (n = 141), mean age 43.1 ± 13.2years, 127 (43.1%) males were included. The median liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet counts were 19.7 (interquartile range [IQR]: 14.8-28.8) kPa and 119 (IQR: 80-160) × 103/mm3, respectively. The SER and missed VNT rates were as follows-for Baveno criteria: 18.3% and 6.2%; expanded Baveno: 35.3% and 29.2%; and for RESIST-HCV criteria: 37.3% and 22.9%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 93.7%, 21.9%, 18.9%, and 94.7% for Baveno criteria; 70.8%, 42.3%, 19.3%, and 88.1% for expanded Baveno; and 77.1%, 44.5%, 21.3%, and 90.9% for RESIST-HCV criteria, respectively. Baveno criteria are useful to avoid screening endoscopies in patients with cirrhosis of viral etiologies. In contrast, although expanded Baveno criteria and RESIST-HCV criteria spare more endoscopies, a high missed VNT rate limits their applicability.