Battery electric vehicles in cities: Measurement of some impacts on traffic and government revenue recovery

Abstract

We are told that electric vehicles, cars in particular, will be good for the environment. But what exactly might this mean? It is true that end use emissions will be significantly reduced when we move from fossil fuels to green energy sources? Assuming that the demand for such cars, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in particular will grow, we can expect a significant number of such vehicles manufactured in future years. Given the potentially relatively lower cost (fewer moving parts) compared to internal combustion engine vehicles as well as the significantly lower usage costs per kilometre, we would expect a level of uptake that could impact on the performance of the road network (perhaps increased congestion and crash risk) but also a concomitant reduced use of public transport and fuel excise loss. In this paper, we apply the MetroScan modelling system in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA) over the period 2021–2056 to identify the likely impact that the growth in BEV ownership and use will have on vehicle kilometres, modal shares, government revenues, levels of CO2 emissions and other impacts. Moreover, we investigate the introduction of a BEV usage charge proposed in Australia to see what it might do to these key performance indicators and whether it can offset the adverse effects during BEV uptake such as government fuel excise revenue loss and increased congestion.