Abstract
OPINION article Front. Psychol., 22 May 2015Sec. Cognition Volume 6 - 2015 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00680
Highlights
Specialty section: This article was submitted to Cognition, a section of the journal Frontiers in Psychology
If a woman has a child with the anomaly, there is a 75% chance that she has a positive test result
If she does not have a child with the anomaly, there is still a 12.5% chance that she has a positive test result
Summary
One has to integrate the prior probability that a woman has a child with the anomaly (i.e., the prevalence rate: 4%) with information about the test’s statistical properties. About half of the respondents succeed when reasoning with natural frequencies (e.g., “Three out of the 4 women who had a child with the anomaly had a positive test result”) or numbers of chances (e.g., “In 3 out of the 4 chances of having a child with the anomaly the test result is positive”; see, respectively, Hoffrage and Gigerenzer, 1998; Girotto and Gonzalez, 2001).
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