Basic reproduction number of African swine fever in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in South Korea.

Abstract

BackgroundAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics.ObjectivesThis study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity.MethodsWe detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed.ResultsTotally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar.ConclusionsThe disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.