Abstract
Children approach counterfactual questions about stories with a reasoning strategy that falls short of adults’ Counterfactual Reasoning (CFR). It was dubbed “Basic Conditional Reasoning” (BCR) in Rafetseder et al. (Child Dev 81(1):376-389, 2010). In this paper we provide a characterisation of the differences between BCR and CFR using a distinction between permanent and nonpermanent features of stories and Lewis/Stalnaker counterfactual logic. The critical difference pertains to how consistency between a story and a conditional antecedent incompatible with a nonpermanent feature of the story is achieved. Basic conditional reasoners simply drop all nonpermanent features of the story. Counterfactual reasoners preserve as much of the story as possible while accommodating the antecedent.
Highlights
Introduction and OverviewIn a study described in [9], children observed a puppet named Carol making dirty footprints on a clean floor
Instead we provide a two-step test for permanence, and describe how our theory of the difference between Basic Conditional Reasoning (BCR) and Counterfactual Reasoning (CFR) predicts BC reasoners will behave on these tests
Why should BCR emerge before CFR? When faced with a counterfactual question about a story whose antecedent contradicts a nonpermanent feature of the story, CF reasoners take into account both permanent and nonpermanent features of the story
Summary
In a study described in [9], children observed a puppet named Carol making dirty footprints on a clean floor. If the experimenter continued by showing the mother coming home and putting sweets on the top shelf, even children whose ages ranged from two years and eleven months to five years and nine months most often correctly answered the question, “If the little girl comes looking for sweets, what will happen to them? Where will the sweets be?” by saying that the sweets would remain on the top shelf When they were shown the mother coming home and putting sweets on the top shelf, and the older brother retrieving them to his bedroom, the same children gave incorrect answers to the counterfactual question (II) 94% of the time.
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