Abstract
Does foreign military assistance strengthen or further weaken fragile states facing internal conflict? Aid may strengthen the state by bolstering its repressive capacity vis-a-vis armed nonstate actors or weaken it if resources are diverted to these very groups. We examine how US military aid affects political violence in Colombia. We exploit the allocation of US military aid to Colombian military bases and compare how aid affects municipalities with and without bases. We use an instrument based on worldwide increases in US military aid (excluding Latin America). We find that US military assistance leads to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries but has no effect on guerilla attacks. Aid also results in more paramilitary (but not guerrilla) homicides during election years, particularly in politically competitive municipalities. The findings suggest that foreign military assistance may strengthen armed nonstate actors, undermining domestic political institutions.
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