Baselines, Trajectories, and Scenarios: Exploring Agricultural Production in the Northeast U.S.

Timothy Griffin,Nicole Tichenor,Ashley McCarthy,Jonathan Resop,Emily Piltch,David Fleisher,Christian Peters,Zach Conrad,Michael Conard,Houman Saberi

doi:10.5304/jafscd.2018.082.015

Abstract

Agricultural production on farms and ranches in the U.S. contributes to the food supply and the food system on local, regional, national, and global scales. Increasing production at the regional scale—the focus of this research—depends on accurately estimating current production and understanding the mechanisms and resource requirements of production shifts. The Production Team of the EFSNE Project undertook seven studies that focused on current and potential production in the U.S. Northeast region, which includes nearly one-quarter of the population but only about 3% of national cropland. Here we summarize the results from these studies that: (1) estimate the regional self-reliance of primary crop, livestock products, and livestock feeds; (2) develop and implement a method to delineate urban, peri-urban, and rural zones around cities and analyze the distribution of food chain businesses across these zones; (3) assess crop yield trajectories to refine potential production increases associated with agricultural expansion into different land categories; and (4) model climate change and dietary impacts on yields and land use. The regional self-reliance of food crops varies widely, and the predominant agricultural use of land is for the production of animal feeds. The peri-urban zones contain significant agricultural production and concentrations of supply chain businesses. The potential to expand regional output via yield increases varies by crop and by land category and is strongly influenced by climate change. The diverse disciplines represented on the Production Team, along with significant leadership from graduate students and post-doctoral researchers, contributed to the broad array of studies completed.

Highlights

Introduction and Literature ReviewFollowing the growth in agricultural output via land expansion in the U.S prior to 1900, the most notable trends in the agricultural sector have been productivity increases, geographic concentration, and specialization at the farm level
A number of notable trends in the agriculture and foods sectors contribute to a renewed interest in regional food production, including production in the Northeast U.S First, there is increased risk associated with geographic concentration of production centers for both crops and livestock
The Production Team undertook a number of research studies to assess current and future agricultural output for the Northeast region, and here we summarize the results of this multi-year interdisciplinary research effort

Summary

Introduction

Introduction and Literature ReviewFollowing the growth in agricultural output via land expansion in the U.S prior to 1900, the most notable trends in the agricultural sector have been productivity increases, geographic concentration, and specialization at the farm level. The development of efficient transportation networks in the U.S has led to the relocation ( not elimination) of earlier production centers that relied on perishable crop and livestock products produced near concentrated urban markets This shift in production centers has been very apparent in the Northeast U.S For example, the agricultural land base has contracted by nearly 70% for a number of Northeast states, mostly after 1900 (Griffin, Conrad, Peters, Ridberg, & Perry, 2015). A number of notable trends in the agriculture and foods sectors contribute to a renewed interest in regional food production, including production in the Northeast U.S First, there is increased risk associated with geographic concentration of production centers for both crops and livestock. In a more qualitative than quantitative trend, there has been a growing research base that examines the potential for regions to become more self-reliant in food provision, which can have positive impacts on food security, economic development, and ecological systems (Ruhf, 2015)

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Results

Conclusion