Abstract
Projects implemented under the Clean Development Mechanism (COM) need to establish a baseline. The baselines is a projection of greenhouse gas emissions that would have occurred without the project. Establishing baselines that allow for sustainable development through COM projects is a key challenge, especially in poor communities. The COM rules explicitly allow for baselines that account for emissions "above current levels due to specific circumstances of host parties". This provision lends support to crediting of growth in demand for energy services where it is currently suppressed as a result of poverty and/or lack of infrastructure or suppressed demand. The question is whether the existing level of consumption is the baseline or the future expected level of consumption including "development" advances in provision of energy services and as a result of poverty alleviation is the baseline. Or should development be allowed to get dirty before it qualifies to become clean? The paper presents a baseline methodology that provides opportunities for suppressed demand to be predicted and counted.
Highlights
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to 'prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' and promote sustainable development (UNFCCC, 1992)
Article 12 (5)(c) of the Kyoto Protocol requires that emissions reductions be "additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity" (UNFCCC, 1997)
In the extreme case, where a service was previously completely unavailable, the introduction of a cleaner technology may still result in an increase the absolute levels of GHG emissions, compared to a BAD development path, the technology introduced through the CDM may be cleaner
Summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to 'prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' and promote sustainable development (UNFCCC, 1992). The Clean Development Mechanism (COM) is one of three 'flexibility mechanisms' in the Protocol, the other two being Joint Implementation (JI) and EmiS$ions Trading (ET). These mechanisms allow flexibility for Annex I. The COM is a project-based mechanism that allows Annex I Parties to meet part of their emissions reductions targets by investing in developing countries. Paragraph 46 of the Marrakech Accord states that: "The baseline may include a scenario where future anthropogenic emissions by sources are projected to rise above current levels, due to the specific circumstances of the host Party" This paper argues that suppressed demand is a specific circumstance that justifies baseline scenarios in which future emissions increase. The paper introduces the concepts of baselines and suppressed demand, provides examples of baselines for COM projects which would avoid emissions, and suggests lessons for a generic methodology for suppressed demand baselines
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