Baseline predictors of survival in metastatic colorectal cancer.

Abstract

e14105 Background: Patients with non-resectable metastatic colorectal cancer can survive several years with palliative chemotherapy and newer biological agents. However, survival varies greatly within this group. The aim of the present study was to identify baseline predictors of overall mortality in an unselected cohort of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Methods: Clinical information was collected from patient files in consecutive patients treated with palliative chemotherapy from August 2007 until June 2011. The primary outcome was overall survival. Cox regression analysis was used to examine the effect of predictive variables on time to outcome. The variables analysed were: Gender, age, performance status, primary tumor site (colon or rectum), status of primary tumor (resected or un-resected), metachronous metastases, more than two metastatic sites, liver-only metastases, and low albumin. Results: We included 314 patients (Median age 64.5 IQ (57-70) years, 194 (61.8%) male). Median follow-up for survival was 471 days IQ (257-708). One-year survival was 79%, CI (74-84%). Median overall survival was 676 days, CI (577-750). Following baseline variables were independent predictors of all-cause mortality: Primary tumor site colon HR: 1.49, CI (1.03-2.16), p=0.036, un-resected primary tumor HR 2.92, CI (1.85-4.62), p<0.001, metachronous metastases HR 1.72, CI (1.06-2.79), p=0.027 and more than two metastatic sites HR 3.46, CI (1.71-6.99), p=0.001. Both Performance status and low albumin were statistically significant in the univariate analysis, but not in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions: In daily clinical practice, baseline predictors of mortality in metastatic colorectal cancer were colon as the primary tumor site, un-resected primary tumor, metachronous metastases, and more than two metastatic sites.