Baseline energy modeling for improved measurement and verification through the use of ensemble artificial intelligence models

Abstract

Accurate estimation of energy savings is crucial for the effective implementation of energy conservation measures (ECMs). Simultaneously, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized software engineering by imbuing software with intelligent capabilities and autonomy. In this paper, we propose an ensemble model for precisely estimating baseline energy consumption within the realm of AI-empowered autonomous software. The ensemble model combines predictions from three tree-based Machine Learning models, namely Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Notably, our model emphasizes the provision of explainability, granting transparency and insights into the key factors influencing baseline energy consumption. To validate its effectiveness, we conduct experimental evaluations on a diverse cluster of real-world buildings in Latvia. The results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed ensemble model over individual models and even a deep learning network tailored for energy consumption estimation. These findings underscore the efficacy of AI-empowered models in the energy sector, offering a robust and interpretable solution for estimating energy savings.