Baseline CT radiomics features to predict pathological complete response of advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy using paclitaxel and cisplatin

Abstract

PurposeTo develop a CT radiomics model to predict pathological complete response (pCR) of advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) toneoadjuvant chemotherapy using paclitaxel and cisplatin. Materials and Methods326 consecutive patients with advanced ESCC from two hospitals undergoing baseline contrast-enhanced CT followed by neoadjuvant chemotherapy using paclitaxel and cisplatin were enrolled, including 115 patients achieving pCR and 211 patients without pCR. Of the 271 cases from 1st hospital, 188 and 83 cases were randomly allocated to the training and test cohorts, respectively. The 55 patients from a second hospital were assigned as an external validation cohort. Region of interest was segmented on the baseline thoracic contrast-enhanced CT. Useful radiomics features were generated by dimension reduction using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The optimal radiomics features were chosen using support vector machine (SVM). Discriminating performance was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and F-1score. The calibration curves and Brier score were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy. ResultsEight radiomics features were selected to create radiomics models related to pCR of advanced ESCC (P-values < 0.01 for both the training and test cohorts). SVM model showed the best performance (AUCs = 0.929, 0.868 and 0.866, F-1scores = 0.857, 0.847 and 0.737 in the training, test and external validation cohorts, respectively). The calibration curves and Brier scores indicated goodness-of-fit and its great predictive accuracy. ConclusionCT radiomics models could well help predict pCR of advanced ESCC, and SVM model could be a suitable predictive model.