Baseline and 6-month B-type natriuretic peptide changes are independent predictors of events in patients with advanced heart failure awaiting cardiac transplantation

Abstract

To assess the prognostic role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) measured at baseline and after 6 months in advanced heart failure patients, candidates for heart transplantation. Ninety-nine patients with BNP evaluation (mean age 50.8 years, 85% men) were admitted in the heart transplantation waiting list; 39% were in New York Heart Association functional class IV; with hemodynamic patterns of severe heart failure, the cause was ischemic in 45% and idiopathic in 44%. In order to identify more severe patients, BNP values and changes at 6 months were dichotomized according to their upper tertile (>1100 and >or=70 pg/ml, respectively). Median baseline BNP was 719 pg/ml. After a median of 45 months, 40 events were observed (three cardiac assist device implants, 16 urgent heart transplantations, 13 sudden deaths and eight deaths from heart failure). The event rate was 10.0 and 32.3 per 100 person-years in patients with low and high BNP, respectively. In a bivariable Cox regression, BNP at entry in the list and change in BNP at 6 months were independent predictors of events, with hazard ratios of 4.10 (95% confidence interval 2.14-7.88, P<0.001) and 4.55 (95% confidence interval 2.36-8.80, P<0.001), respectively. Furthermore, the risk increased from neither BNP/BNP change, to one of them and to both of them present. Both high baseline and further increase in BNP levels during midterm follow-up are strong predictors of events in patients with advanced heart failure awaiting heart transplantation.