Abstract

In order to make the risk assessment method of oil wharf handling more reasonable, basic data calibration method more accurate, and assessment findings more objective, the fuzzy weights of the relative probability of basic events are calibrated by ANP decision-making (Analytic Network Process). ANP decision-making is appropriate for reflecting the dependence between the basic events and the feedback relationship. The calibration value is used as the probability value of each basic event. Based on the fault tree model, the relationship between the accidents caused by the Bayesian network is constructed, and the important degree of the basic events is quantitatively evaluated. The case focuses on wharf handling gasoline fire and explosions, using ANP method to calibrate probability, and analyzing and sorting the structural importance, the probability importance, and critical degree of each basic event through forward and backward reasoning. The results showed that the evaluation model can better characterize the effect of the basic events on the top events, which can be targeted to identify security weaknesses in oil wharf handling process. It has some practical significance for finding security risks and improving working conditions and the overall system safety level.

Highlights

  • The number of water transports of dangerous goods has increased by 20% annually over recent decades in China [1], in which oil water transport contributes a lot

  • The results showed that the evaluation model can better characterize the effect of the basic events on the top events, which can be targeted to identify security weaknesses in oil wharf handling process

  • The following will focus on introducing the concept of Bayesian network and its building methods, Analytic Network Process (ANP) calibration methods of probability, and the methods of calculating the importance degree of basic events

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Summary

Introduction

The number of water transports of dangerous goods has increased by 20% annually over recent decades in China [1], in which oil water transport contributes a lot (or plays an important part). To assess the risk of oil wharf handling process and to identify the key factors that lead to accidents are of great importance to ensure the safe operation at ports. It will be able to quantificationally calculate the structural importance, probable importance, and the critical importance of every elementary event, which can be targeted to identify security weaknesses in oil wharf handling process. It has practical significance for finding security risks, improving working conditions and the overall system safety level

Analysis of Risk Factors
Risk Assessment Methods
Case Study
Findings
Conclusion
Full Text
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