Based on a Markov model, cost-effectiveness analysis of influenza vaccination among people aged 60 years and older in Shenzhen

Abstract

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination among people aged 60 years and older in Shenzhen. Methods: A Markov state transition model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of annual influenza vaccination for preventing influenza infection compared with no vaccination among the elderly from the social perspective. Allowing seasonal variation of influenza activity, the model followed a five-year cohort using weekly cycles. We employed once the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2019 (70 892 yuan) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold and calculated the net monetary benefit (NMB) with costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) discounted at 5% annually. The impact of parameter uncertainty on the results was examined using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA). Results: The base case amounted to approximately 35 yuan of cost-saving and a net gain of 0.007 QALYs. Correspondingly, the NMB was 529 yuan per vaccinated person. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the NMB was relatively sensitive to changes in the attack rate of influenza and vaccine effectiveness. Based on the results of PSA with 1 000 Monte Carlo simulations, influenza vaccination had a probability of being cost-effective in 100% of the repetitions. Conclusions: The present study provides evidence that influenza vaccination is a cost-saving disease prevention strategy for people aged 60 years and older in Shenzhen.