Bankruptcy Prediction for Sustainability of Businesses: The Application of Graph Theoretical Modeling

Abstract

Various methods are used when building bankruptcy prediction models. New sophisticated methods that are already used in other scientific fields can also be applied in this area. Graph theory provides a powerful framework for analyzing and visualizing complex systems, making it a valuable tool for assessing the sustainability and financial health of businesses. The motivation for the research was the interest in the application of this method rarely applied in predicting the bankruptcy of companies. The paper aims to propose an improved dynamic bankruptcy prediction model based on graph theoretical modelling. The dynamic model considering the causality relation between financial features was built for the period 2015–2021. Financial features entering the model were selected with the use of Domain knowledge approach. When building the model, the weights of partial permanents were proposed to determine their impact on the final permanent and the algorithm for the optimalisation of these weights was established to obtain the best performing model. The outcome of the paper is the improved dynamic graph theoretical model with a good classification accuracy. The developed model is applicable in the field of bankruptcy prediction and is an equivalent sophisticated alternative to already established models.