Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan

Abstract

This paper attempts to enhance our understanding of macro aspects of bankruptcies in Japan. For this purpose, we estimate a vector autoregression comprised of three macroeconomic variables, two financial variables from the corporate sector and the bankruptcy rate, and construct its impulse responses. The estimation results generally show expected and consistent relationships between economic shocks and aggregate bankruptcies: in particular, a positive shock in the call rate clearly raises the bankruptcy rate. We also estimate industry-level models for manufacturing, construction, and wholesale and retail trade, the results of which show fundamental similarities, but differences as well, in the details by industry. We try to apply a standard framework for analysis aimed at establishing a clear benchmark for the study.