Bankruptcies, firm size and unemployment: A big bang theory of economic cycles

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of bankruptcies on unemployment in an economy characterised by no substitutability of labour. A computer simulation model is used to analyse its properties. Spectral analysis reveals the existence of cycles in unemployment. It is found that average unemployment tends to be lower the more flexible are wages and interest rates, provided both move anticyclically, and the more rapid is the speed with which existing firms expand. An economy characterised by small firms is found to be more stable with a tendency to a longer cycle than one characterised by large firms. However, given the assumptions we have made, it is also likely to be characterised by higher average unemployment.