BANKING SYSTEM FRAGILITY IN NIGERIA: HANGING ON THE PRECIPICE?

Abstract

The health of a country’s banking system is a key determinant to the development of the country. A fragile banking system portends danger not only to the financial system but the entire economy. This study investigates the state of the Nigerian banking system in terms of stability or fragility from 1981 to 2020. We used the banking system fragility index (BSFI) proposed by Kibritçioğlu (2003) to analyze Nigerian banking industry aggregate data from three risk areas: credit, market and liquidity. We estimated that out of the 40 years examined, the banking system was fragile for 23 years given their BSFI less than 0 while it was not fragile for 17 years with BSFI = 0 or greater. We found that most of the years when the Nigerian banking system was fragile were periods of relaxed monetary policies, deregulation and credit expansion. Secondly, the years of banking system stability were when the county’s banking system was subjected to stiff regulation and consolidation. Given the number of years that the system was fragile, we observed that sustained economic growth and development requires that the banking system remain strong as long as possible, and that the Nigerian situation could not promote this important objective. We recommend that the financial regulatory authorities put in place more stringent policies as banks are more fragile during the deregulation of the banking industry.