Bank Risk within and Across Equilibria

Abstract

This paper models a financial sector in which there is a feedback between individual bank risk and aggregate funding market problems. Greater individual risk taking worsens adverse selection problems on the market. But adverse selection premia on that market push up bank risk taking, leading to multiple equilibria. The model identifies shifts among equilibria as a function of parameter shocks. Measures that reduce individual bank default risk within an equilibrium can actually make the system as whole more sensitive to shocks. Risks may thus seem small and market risk premia low precisely when the system as whole is most fragile.