Abstract

Bank competition can induce excessive risk taking due to risk shifting. With a competitive banking sector and insured deposits, banks may have the incentive to overly invest in risky assets. I test this hypothesis using micro-level U.S. mortgage data by exploiting an exogenous land-topology-based variation in local house price volatility. I find that, from 2000 to 2005, banks faced with competitive county-level mortgage markets substantially lowered lending standards by twice as much as those in concentrated markets in response to high volatility in the house price, making their mortgage loan performance more volatile and correlated with future house price movements. Such risk taking pattern related to competition was associated with real economic consequences in the aftermath of the crisis, including 1% higher foreclosure rate and 1.5% higher real-sector unemployment rate for each one standard-deviation increase in local house price volatility.

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