Bank Business Models, Negative Policy Rates, and Prudential Regulation

Abstract

Using data from Italian banks over the period 2011-2017, we study how negative interest rate policy and prudential regulation impact on bank business models. We report four key findings. First, banks shifted into retail- and market-oriented business models. Second, high- and low-deposit banks reduced loans and increased security/liquid assets; only market-oriented banks expanded lending. Third, interest rate income compression induced by negative rates has been substantial for the Italian banking system as a whole, although retail banks seem to have suffered less. Fourth, non-interest incomes played a compensatory effect. The portfolio reshuffling, as we observed for wholesale and retail banks (less lending and more securities/liquid assets), is related to the goal of reducing risk exposures and, in turn, the connected capital absorption required by prudential regulation.