Bandwidth selection in pre-smoothed particle filters

Abstract

For the purpose of maximum likelihood estimation of static parameters, we apply a kernel smoother to the particles in the standard SIR filter for non-linear state space models with additive Gaussian observation noise. This reduces the Monte Carlo error in the estimates of both the posterior density of the states and the marginal density of the observation at each time point. We correct for variance inflation in the smoother, which together with the use of Gaussian kernels, results in a Gaussian (Kalman) update when the amount of smoothing turns to infinity. We propose and study of a criterion for choosing the optimal bandwidth h in the kernel smoother. Finally, we illustrate our approach using examples from econometrics. Our filter is shown to be highly suited for dynamic models with high signal-to-noise ratio, for which the SIR filter has problems.