Baltimore's Mass-Transit Modification: Exploring the Relationship Between Commute Time and Local Population Density

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe concentric zone model is one of the earliest models to explain how a city will grow based on its urban social structures. This model assumes an isotopic landscape, thus city expansion can grow in every direction, with some emphasis on extending social structures and the expense of commute times. This study seeks to understand if the presence of mass-transit routes in the city of Baltimore has modified the rounded shape of the concentric zone model and population distribution, as urban expansion has continued. To accomplish this, we explored a relationship between population density and travel-time-to-center (TTC). The expenditure in time a commuter must face to reach the urban center was calculated based on the availability of automobile transit routes using a geographic information system network analysis. We calculated a correlation coefficient between the variables so that the relationship could be explored. Results suggest a moderate negative relationship between TTC and population density in Baltimore, supporting the argument that mass-transit routes are one of the key players in the modification of the urban population distribution. This new variable can be incorporated into future studies to understand how the addition of mass-transit routes will cause a reaction in population distribution of an urban zone.