Abstract
Significance Monthly output in Estonia started contracting from June. GDP (adjusted) stagnated in the first quarter of 2022, and contracted quarter-on-quarter in the following two quarters. Since 2020, the Baltic states' fiscal positions have been strained by the COVID-19 pandemic, an influx of refugees following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a sharp rise in energy prices. Impacts Adverse fiscal outcomes will be acceptable, given Baltic states’ strong political, economic and military support for Ukraine. Independent fiscal councils will call for stronger fiscal discipline and in this will be supported by the European Commission. Tightening ECB monetary policy will raise interest rates for the three Baltic members of the euro-area.
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