Abstract
Various studies demonstrate that candidates at the top of the party list have a strong advantage in preferential voting systems, particularly under open-list PR. Such ballot position effects can be explained by voters’ tendency to rely on easily available information shortcuts when selecting a candidate. In this paper, we argue that the strength of ballot position effects depends on the context of how voters cast their vote. Specifically, we argue that postal voters are less likely to rely on the ballot position cue compared to voters who vote on election day for two reasons. First, postal voters might be more politically interested. Second, postal voters have more time to assess additional information about the candidates. The hypothesis is tested by analyzing newly collected data from two open-list PR elections in the German federal state of Hamburg. The results confirm the theoretical expectations: Ballot position effects are substantively weaker among postal voters. Additional analyses suggest that differences in the political interest between postal voters and election day voters are unlikely to fully explain these results. These findings advance our understanding of ballot position effects and voters’ use of information shortcuts more generally.
Highlights
In open-list proportional representation electoral systems, voters can have a strong impact on which candidates get elected
The first model is based on the election day results and the second model is based on the postal voting results
Ballot position effects can be observed in various open-list PR elections and they are usually so strong that being ranked first guarantees a candidate that she or he will be elected
Summary
In open-list proportional representation electoral systems (open-list PR), voters can have a strong impact on which candidates get elected. It might be the case that the voter actively searches for information about all candidates, for example, by assessing a Voting Advice Application (Schoultz and Papageorgiou 2019) To put it bluntly, for uninformed voters on election day, relying on the ballot position cue is the last resort—without it selecting a candidate would become random or based on an even less useful candidate cue, such as the gender of a candidate. Voting in the electoral districts of Hamburg should be characterized by a high degree of voters who make use of information shortcuts such as ballot position cues and the case is well suited for analyzing the impact of postal voting. It is reasonable to assume that differences between postal and election day voting would be even stronger if such information were not provided on the ballot paper, because voters had even fewer information on which they could rely when selecting a candidate. We analyze whether postal voters care more about local issues during the election campaign or whether they are more likely to support a certain party
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