Balancing the labour market in conditions of growing migration activity of the population

Abstract

The article deals with the labour market model in conditions of high migration activity of the population in Ukraine on the basis of the method of system dynamics. The author suggests a hypothesis that labour migration is determined by the level of wages in the donor country, the level of employment and unemployment, the number of current jobs and vacancies. The assumption is grounded on the basis of the obtained results of the multifactor economic-mathematical model. The article proves that statistics on the labour market in Ukraine are not complete and reliable, and experts' opinions about the necessary conditions for balancing aggregate demand and supply vary. Given the low competitiveness of the domestic economy, the low level of wages, unemployment, shadow employment and the general impoverishment of Ukrainians, an open European labour market creates new incentives and conditions for job search abroad - conditions for outflow of workers from Ukraine. In addition, the crisis socio-economic situation, the increase in the number of refugees from Ukraine as a result of the annexation of the Crimea and military actions in the East of Ukraine create a high probability of an explosion of migration in our country. The author's analysis of the functioning of the national labour market in recent years gives grounds for asserting its ineffectiveness, namely: reduction of the level of economic activity and the level of employment of the population, increase of unemployment, imbalance between demand for labour and its offer, decrease of the load of registered unemployed on one free workplace, due to high rates of labour migration, lower real wages. The article argues that the urgent problems concerning the migration of the population of Ukraine are to increase the economic activity of the population; preventing the growth of unemployment, limiting the scope of labour under the pressure of the financial and economic crisis; ensuring the correspondence between the supply and demand of the workforce. The solution of this problem requires the formation of a well-balanced state policy taking into account the regional specificity of the trends of labour migration, including increasing the competitiveness of the labour force, ensuring a high level of employment, social protection, wages and incomes, and their approach to similar parameters of economically developed countries of the world. Thus, the solution of issues related to the migration of the population is a prerequisite for the implementation of an effective public employment policy.