Balancing Non‐CO2 GHG Emissions and Soil Carbon Change in U.S. Rice Paddies: A Retrospective Meta‐Analysis and Agricultural Modeling Study

Impacts of nitrogen management and organic matter application on nitrous oxide emissions and soil organic carbon from spring maize fields in the North China Plain

Opportunities for mitigating net system greenhouse gas emissions in Southeast Asian rice production: A systematic review

Life-cycle assessments (LCAs) of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) grown for bioenergy production require data on soil organic carbon (SOC) change and harvested C yields to accurately estimate net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To date, nearly all information on SOC change under switchgrass has been based on modeled assumptions or small plot research, both of which do not take into account spatial variability within or across sites for an agro-ecoregion. To address this need, we measured change in SOC and harvested C yield for switchgrass fields on ten farms in the central and northern Great Plains, USA (930 km latitudinal range). Change in SOC was determined by collecting multiple soil samples in transects across the fields prior to planting switchgrass and again 5 years later after switchgrass had been grown and managed as a bioenergy crop. Harvested aboveground C averaged 2.5± 0.7 Mg C ha −1 over the 5 year study. Across sites, SOC increased significantly at 0-30 cm (P=0.03) and 0-120 cm (P=0.07), with accrual rates of 1.1 and 2.9 Mg C ha −1 year −1 (4.0 and 10.6 Mg CO2 ha −1 year −1 ), respectively. Change in SOC across sites varied considerably, however, ranging from −0.6 to 4.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 for the 0-30 cm depth. Such variation in SOC change must be taken into consideration in LCAs. Net GHG emissions from bioenergy crops vary in space and time. Such variation, coupled with an increased reliance on agriculture for energy production, underscores the need for long-term environmental monitor- ing sites in major agro-ecoregions.

Arkansas cropping pattern changes at the county level were estimated under various scenarios involving a likely decline in water availability, the development of a biomass market for renewable energy production, and the potential of a widely used carbon offset market. These scenarios are analyzed separately and jointly to determine which of the three scenarios is expected to have the largest impact on net (emissions - sequestration) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable fuels feedstock supply, and producer net returns. Land use choices included conventional crops of rice, cotton, soybean, corn, grain sorghum, pasture, and hay. Specialty crops of loblolly pine and switchgrass were modeled for their respective potential to sequester carbon and provide feedstock for renewable fuels. GHG emissions were measured across an array of production methods for each crop. Soil and lumber carbon sequestration was based on yield, soil texture, and tillage. Using the concept of additionality in which net GHG emissions reductions compared with a baseline level were rewarded at a carbon price of $15 per ton along with $40 per dry ton of switchgrass, baled at field side, revealed that irrigation restrictions had the largest negative impact on producer net returns while also lowering net GHG emissions. Introducing the higher carbon price led to minor positive income ramifications and greatly reduced net GHG emissions. Biomass production returns were higher than the returns from the carbon offset market, however, at the cost of greater net GHG emissions. The combination of all factors led to a significant increase in switchgrass and pine production. In this scenario, approximately 16% of the total income losses with lower nonirrigated yields were offset with returns from biomass and carbon markets. Lowest statewide net GHG emissions were achieved given least irrigation fuel use and a greater than 15% increase in carbon sequestration with pine and switchgrass.

Modelling spatial heterogeneity in grazed grassland and its effects on nitrogen cycling and greenhouse gas emissions

Does anaerobic digestion really help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? A nuanced case study based on 30 cogeneration plants in France

The environmental sustainability of food production systems, including net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is of increasing importance. In Norwegian pork production, animal performance is high in terms of reproduction, growth, and health. The development and use of an IPCC methodology-based model for estimating GHG emissions from pork production could be helpful in identifying the effects of progress in genetics and management. The objective was to investigate whether an IPCC methodology-based model was able to reflect the effects of the progress in genetics and management in pork production on the GHG emissions per kg carcass weight (CW). It is hypothesized that this progress has led to low GHG emissions intensities in Norwegian pork compared to global levels and that expected improvements will give a lasting reduction in GHG emissions intensities. A model ‘HolosNorPork’ for estimating net farm gate GHG emissions intensities was developed, including allocation procedures, at the pig production unit level. The model was run with pig production data from in average 632 farms from 2014 to 2019. The estimates include emissions of enteric and manure storage methane, manure storage nitrous oxide emissions, as well as GHG emissions from production and transportation of purchased feeds, and direct and indirect GHG emissions caused by energy use in pig-barns. The model was able to estimate the effects on net GHG emissions intensities from pork production on the basis of production characteristics. The estimated net GHG emissions intensity was found to have decreased from on average 2.49 to 2.34 kg CO2 eq. kg−1 CW over the investigated period. For 2019 the net GHG emission for the one-third lower performing farms was estimated to 2.56 kg CO2 eq. kg−1 CW, whereas for the one-third medium and one-third best performing farms the estimates were 2.36 and 2.16 kg CO2 eq. kg−1 CW, respectively. The net GHG emissions intensity for pork carcasses from boars was estimated to be 2.07 kg CO2 eq. kg−1 CW. For the health regimes investigated, Conventional and Specific-Pathogen Free (SPF), the estimated GHG emissions intensities for 2019 were 2.37 and 2.24 kg CO2 eq. kg−1 CW, respectively. The effects on net GHG emissions intensities of breeding and management measures were estimated to be profound, and this progress in pig production systems contributes to an on-going strengthening of pork as a sustainable source for human food supply.

<p>We report on a 30-month design study for a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) demonstration plant that would be built at a site near Meridian, Mississippi, to coprocess lignite coal and woody biomass into jet fuel. The design uses an oxygen-blown TRIG™ gasifier developed by KBR and Southern Company. Fischer-Tropsch conversion of the syngas produces synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) as the primary product, plus naphtha. Other co-products include electricity sold to the grid and CO<sub>2</sub> sold for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Previous studies have identified coprocessing of various coals and biomass with CO<sub>2</sub> capture as promising options for cost-competitive production of low net lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions synthetic fuels. The effort reported here goes beyond earlier studies in the level of detail in process design and cost estimation with the aim of improving the understanding of the economic prospects for lignite and woody biomass coprocessing systems. Key objectives in the design of the FOAK lignite/biomass-to-jet (LBJ) plant were to achieve net lifecycle GHG emissions for the SPK that are less than for conventional petroleum-derived jet fuel and to make process design and equipment selections such that the plant could be built and operated in the near term, e.g., before 2025. The process design was developed by researchers at Princeton University and the University of Queensland and validated by engineers at the WorleyParsons Group (WP). Commercial vendors provided design and cost estimates for several major plant components. Bare-erected capital costs and operating and maintenance costs were estimated by WP.</p><p> The primary objective in building and operating the FOAK plant would be to demonstrate the technical viability of the LBJ concept as an essential first step toward launching commercial-scale plants in the longer term. With this in mind, the project team developed a set of principles to help guide the process design: the total plant cost should be less than 2 billion USD (to limit investment risk); the level of input biomass should be both proportionally significant to reflect biomass/lignite co-gasification and sufficient to achieve GHG emissions goals; process design decisions and vendor/equipment selections should prioritize the likelihood of technical success over minimizing the cost of jet fuel production.</p><p> The resulting FOAK plant design capacity is 1,551 metric t/d (45.5% moisture) lignite and 556 t/d (43.3% moisture) biomass, for a total input of 295 MW<sub>HHV</sub>, of which 25% is biomass. The design output is 1,252 actual barrels per day of liquids, of which 80% is SPK (62.3 MW<sub>LHV</sub>) and 20% is naphtha (13.9 MW<sub>LHV</sub>). It exports 15 MW<sub>e</sub> of electricity after satisfying a 38 MW<sub>e</sub> onsite auxiliary load. Additional products are 1,326 t/d of pressurized pipeline-quality CO<sub>2</sub> and 49 t/day of sulfuric acid (93 wt% H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub>). With thinnings from sustainably-managed southern pine plantations as the biomass, and with captured CO<sub>2</sub> stored underground via EOR, the net lifecycle emissions for the SPK product are estimated to be about one-quarter of those for petroleum-derived jet fuel.</p><p> The bare-erected cost (BEC) estimated by WP for this plant is 588 million USD (2015). The authors’ best estimate of total plant cost (TPC) is 1,230 million USD, arrived at by assuming engineering, procurement and construction management services (20% of BEC), process 5 contingencies (35% of BEC), and project contingencies (35% of the sum of all other costs, i.e., 35% of 1.55xBEC).</p><p> Not surprisingly, an annual discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis determined that it would be impossible to generate a positive net present value (NPV) over a wide range in key input assumptions. An SPK production cost subsidy of nearly 400/bbl USD over a 20-year plant life would be required to achieve zero NPV under a baseline set of assumptions (including 3% real weighted average cost of capital and a levelized crude oil price of 80/bbl USD). Alternatively, a capital grant in excess of the TPC value would also achieve zero NPV. The poor financial results reflect the small scale of the plant, the design principle to prioritize technical success, the levels of contingencies appropriate for the relatively early stage of project development, and the first-of-a-kind nature of the plant.</p><p> Technology innovations, learning via construction and operating experience, alternative plant configurations, and larger scale should improve economics of future plants. To help understand these prospects, a preliminary analysis of N<sup>th</sup>-of-a-kind (NOAK) plants was developed, but with the limitation that plants would use only equipment components that for the most part are already commercial today: consideration of advanced, not-yet-commercial technologies and of R&D-driven improvements in existing technologies were beyond the scope of this analysis. The analysis found that a variety of NOAK plant designs that coprocess lignite and woody biomass to make jet fuel are unlikely to be economically competitive without subsidy even in the presence of a high future carbon tax or equivalent greenhouse gas mitigation policy. This conclusion applies to process configurations and input biomass/lignite ratios that result in net GHG emissions as high as those for petroleum-derived jet fuel and as low as zero.</p><p> In contrast, encouraging results were found for plants processing only biomass. The economics of these “BECCS” plants (biomass energy with CCS) improve dramatically with the strength of carbon mitigation policies because of their strongly negative net GHG emissions. These findings do not imply that coal/biomass coprocessing strategies for making synfuels with CCS are not economically promising – only that, in the case of lignite, much more than a 25% biomass coprocessing rate would be needed.</p><p> However, our analysis shows that all such systems are unlikely to be economic in the absence of a strong carbon mitigation policy. Future R&D driven technological innovations could modify this conclusion. Among other R&D priorities, an emphasis on better understanding and reducing plant auxiliary loads is warranted.</p>

This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. The GWP-scaling method is tested using methane as an example. The temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived, where the net-zero point is identified with the maximum of GHG forcing. This shows that, to meet the Article 2 warming goal, the net-zero point for GHG emissions needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific problems in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

Crop intensification is often thought to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but studies in which crop management is optimized to exploit crop yield potential are rare. We conducted a field study in eastern Nebraska, USA to quantify GHG emissions, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the net global warming potential (GWP) in four irrigated systems: continuous maize with recommended best management practices (CC‐rec) or intensive management (CC‐int) and maize–soybean rotation with recommended (CS‐rec) or intensive management (CS‐int). Grain yields of maize and soybean were generally within 80–100% of the estimated site yield potential. Large soil surface carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes were mostly associated with rapid crop growth, high temperature and high soil water content. Within each crop rotation, soil CO2 efflux under intensive management was not consistently higher than with recommended management. Owing to differences in residue inputs, SOC increased in the two continuous maize systems, but decreased in CS‐rec or remained unchanged in CS‐int. N2O emission peaks were mainly associated with high temperature and high soil water content resulting from rainfall or irrigation events, but less clearly related to soil NO3‐N levels. N2O fluxes in intensively managed systems were only occasionally greater than those measured in the CC‐rec and CS‐rec systems. Fertilizer‐induced N2O emissions ranged from 1.9% to 3.5% in 2003, from 0.8% to 1.5% in 2004 and from 0.4% to 0.5% in 2005, with no consistent differences among the four systems. All four cropping systems where net sources of GHG. However, due to increased soil C sequestration continuous maize systems had lower GWP than maize–soybean systems and intensive management did not cause a significant increase in GWP. Converting maize grain to ethanol in the two continuous maize systems resulted in a net reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of maize ethanol relative to petrol‐based gasoline by 33–38%. Our study provided evidence that net GHG emissions from agricultural systems can be kept low when management is optimized toward better exploitation of the yield potential. Major components for this included (i) choosing the right combination of adopted varieties, planting date and plant population to maximize crop biomass productivity, (ii) tactical water and nitrogen (N) management decisions that contributed to high N use efficiency and avoided extreme N2O emissions, and (iii) a deep tillage and residue management approach that favored the build‐up of soil organic matter from large amounts of crop residues returned.

Crop rotations are considered a promising strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhancing soil organic matter in agricultural land. However, studies often focused solely on either GHG emissions or soil organic carbon (SOC) changes, rather than integrating both indicators. We conducted a 4‐year (2018–2021) crop rotation study to examine effects of six rotation systems in three ecoregions (sub‐humid, sub‐semiarid, and semiarid) on GHG emissions, SOC changes, and C footprints in Saskatchewan, Canada. The six rotation systems include (i) control, (ii) intensified, (iii) diversified, (iv) market‐driven, (v) high‐risk, and (vi) soil‐health cropping system. GHG emissions were estimated using the Holos model, and SOC changes were estimated using the Campbell model, and C footprints were calculated as the difference between GHG emissions and SOC changes. The 4‐year cumulative GHG emissions, expressed as CO2 equivalent (CO2e), were highest in the sub‐humid ecoregion due to higher background SOC levels, nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs, and precipitation. The diversified and soil‐health systems reduced GHG emissions by reduced N fertilizer inputs. Carbon footprints revealed net CO2e emissions for the market‐driven system but net CO2e withdrawals for the soil‐health and diversified systems. The results indicated that the diversified systems significantly mitigated GHG emissions, increased soil C stocks, and withdrew CO2e.

Increases in soil sequestered carbon under conservation agriculture cropping decrease the estimated greenhouse gas emissions of wetland rice using life cycle assessment

Sequestering carbon (C) in soil organic matter in grassland systems is often cited as a major opportunity to offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, these systems are typically grazed by ruminants, leading to uncertainties in the net GHG balance that may be achieved. We used a pasture model to investigate the net balance between methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and soil C in sheep-grazed pasture systems with two starting amounts of soil C. The net emissions were calculated for four soil types in two rainfall zones over three periods of 19 years. Because of greater pasture productivity, and consequent higher sheep stocking rates, high-rainfall sites were associated with greater GHG emissions that could not be offset by C sequestration. On these high-rainfall sites, the higher rate of soil organic carbon (SOC) increase on low-SOC soils offset an average of 45% of the livestock GHG emissions on the modelled chromosol and 32% on the modelled vertosol. The slow rate of SOC increase on the high-SOC soils only offset 2–4% of CH4 and N2O emissions on these high-rainfall sites. On low-rainfall sites, C sequestration in low-SOC soils more than offset livestock GHG emissions, whereas the modelled high-C soils offset 75–86% of CH4 and N2O emissions. Greater net emissions on high-C soils were due primarily to reduced sequestration potential and greater N2O emissions from nitrogen mineralisation and livestock urine. Annual variation in CH4 and N2O emissions was low, whereas annual SOC change showed high annual variation, which was more strongly correlated with weather variables on the low-rainfall sites compared with the high-rainfall sites. At low-soil C concentrations, with high sequestration potential, there is an initial mitigation benefit that can in some instances offset enteric CH4 and direct and indirect N2O emissions. However, as soil organic matter increases there is a trade-off between diminishing GHG offsets and increasing ecosystem services, including mineralisation and productivity benefits.

Agricultural soils play a dual role in regulating the Earth's climate by releasing or sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in soil organic carbon (SOC) and emitting non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4 ). To understand how agricultural soils can play a role in climate solutions requires a comprehensive assessment of net soil GHG balance (i.e., sum of SOC-sequestered CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions) and the underlying controls. Herein, we used a model-data integration approach to understand and quantify how natural and anthropogenic factors have affected the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of the net soil GHG balance in U.S. croplands during 1960-2018. Specifically, we used the dynamic land ecosystem model for regional simulations and used field observations of SOC sequestration rates and N2 O and CH4 emissions to calibrate, validate, and corroborate model simulations. Results show that U.S. agricultural soils sequestered Tg CO2 -C year-1 in SOC (at a depth of 3.5 m) during 1960-2018 and emitted Tg N2 O-N year-1 and Tg CH4 -C year-1 , respectively. Based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon), the estimated national net GHG emission rate from agricultural soils was Tg CO2 -eq year-1 , with the largest contribution from N2 O emissions. The sequestered SOC offset ~28% of the climate-warming effects resulting from non-CO2 GHG emissions, and this offsetting effect increased over time. Increased nitrogen fertilizer use was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in net GHG emissions during 1960-2018, explaining ~47% of total changes. In contrast, reduced cropland area, the adoption of agricultural conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage), and rising atmospheric CO2 levels attenuated net GHG emissions from U.S. croplands. Improving management practices to mitigate N2 O emissions represents the biggest opportunity for achieving net-zero emissions in U.S. croplands. Our study highlights the importance of concurrently quantifying SOC-sequestered CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions for developing effective agricultural climate change mitigation measures.

Carbon sequestration and net emissions of CH4 and N2O under agroforestry: Synthesizing available data and suggestions for future studies