Balancing multi-species connectivity and socio-economic factors to connect protected areas in the Paraguayan Atlantic Forest

Abstract

The Atlantic Forest in Paraguay has been severely affected by large-scale habitat loss and fragmentation, processes that have increasingly isolated its protected areas. Here we identified priority areas capable of maximizing connectivity between protected areas for multiple species while minimizing potential socio-economic conflicts in Paraguay's Atlantic Forest. We built multi-scale habitat suitability models for 15 species and mapped connectivity using circuit theory and least-cost path methods. Then, we used connectivity maps and different socio-economic factors to identify priority areas. We created three scenarios to explore the effects of including socio-economic factors in prioritization: Optimized-connectivity Scenario that assumes no conflicts; Optimistic Conflict Scenario that seeks a balance between biodiversity and socio-economic interests, with the former having greater priority over the latter; and Pessimistic Conflict Scenario that represents a high conflict situation. The inclusion of socio-economic data in the analysis caused a shift in priority areas from east to west and reduced the representation of connectivity by up to 15%. Regardless of the scenario considered, forest restoration is needed to improve connectivity. The Optimistic Conflict Scenario returned the likely most cost-effective solution because, compared to the Optimized-connectivity Scenario, the 7% decline in connectivity (from 34 to 27%) was offset by a reduction in restoration efforts from 2.2% to 0.6% of the study area. Our study presents solutions to balance the trade-offs between socio-economic issues and connectivity conservation in Paraguay's Atlantic Forest. In particular, well-planned conservation and restoration efforts outside protected boundaries have the potential to improve connectivity while boosting local socio-economic development.