Abstract

The increasing reliance on electric micro-mobility vehicles (EMVs) in the delivery industry necessitates efficient battery-swapping infrastructure. This study presents a framework that predicts battery-swapping needs for EMVs using a simulation model that considers the entire travel chain of activities. We propose a multi-objective optimization model to strategically determine battery-swapping station locations, balancing construction and transit costs. Utilizing the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), we identified 35 non-dominated solutions within the Pareto front. For Nanjing City, our model indicated that the construction of an optimal network could be achieved with costs ranging from 2.85 to 4.94 million Yuan, corresponding to battery-swapping trip costs between 9700 and 197,000 Yuan. The simulation predicted a daily battery-swapping demand of 675 instances, with peak hours at 11:00 a.m. (301 swaps) and 5:00 p.m. (198 swaps). Sensitivity analysis showed that reducing the charging period from 3 h to 1 h could decrease construction costs by 1.55 million Yuan on average, while maintaining a consistent battery-swapping travel cost of around 23,000 Yuan. Additionally, a 5 % increase in battery-swapping penetration rate led to an average increase of 480,000 Yuan in construction costs and 847 Yuan in travel costs. This study integrates demand forecasting and infrastructure optimization, providing actionable insights for planning and managing battery-swapping stations.

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