Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth in a multisectoral framework

Abstract

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth by providing an innovative empirical evaluation of a disaggregated version of the so‐called Thirlwall's Law derived from a Pasinettian multisectoral framework.Design/methodology/approachAfter estimating sectoral elasticities of exports and imports for a considerable panel dataset of 90 countries over the period 1965‐1999, the authors have performed two empirical exercises. First, they grouped countries together by income level and evaluated a multisectoral balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth model by analyzing prediction errors and mean absolute deviations. Second, the authors carried out a regression validity test on the results.FindingsThe main findings give support to the validity of the multisectoral version of Thirlwall's Law, providing therefore further understanding of the structural determinants of the uneven international development and guidance for the design of growth‐enhancing national structural policies.Originality/valueThe main value added of this contribution to the existing literature lies in the use of disaggregated trade data in conjunction with modern panel data econometric techniques to obtain empirical estimates on the balance‐of‐payments constraints to long‐run economic growth for an unprecedently large sample of countries.