Abstract
BackgroundThe BALAD score and BALAD-2 class derived from bilirubin, albumin, AFP, AFP-L3, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) are effective in predicting mortality in HCC, but have not been validated in North America. Methods148 HCC patients from 2000 to 2015 who had all five biomarkers tested at diagnosis were included. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated. Results75 patients died during a median follow-up of 21.9 months. 1-and 3-year survival rates were 70.8% and 47.6%. 114 (77%) had cirrhosis. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.24 (0.42–3.67), 1.79 (0.61–5.26), 2.83 (0.95–8.38), and 7.19 (2.26–22.91) for BALAD scores 1, 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD 0. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.25 (0.65–2.40), 1.75 (0.94–3.23), and 6.20 (3.29–11.68) for BALAD-2 classes 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD-2 class 1. A multivariate model incorporating maximal tumor diameter, tumor number, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and BALAD had HR of 1.43 (1.14–1.81) per increase of 1 BALAD score. A similar model with BALAD-2 had HR of 1.50 (1.18–1.90) per increase of 1 BALAD-2 class. ConclusionBALAD models at diagnosis can predict the survival of HCC patients in North America. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP reflect tumor progression and metastasis of HCC and distinguish the BALAD model from other predictive models.
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