Bajesov kriterijum odlučivanja u izboru pouzdanih isporučioca

Abstract

Competitive terms and conditions on the market force organizations to find a way to reduce price of nonconformance increase productivity and improve service to customers. Orientation to customer needs requires continuous improvement of quality of products and services, lower costs, shorter delivery time and the optimal inventory of materials in stock. Company's decision whether certain components should be bought or produced represents a significant dilemma in terms of uncertainty of the market itself. The paper explains the technique to choose a reliable supplier of castings for the production of heating plate - an alternative to using a priori probability, which are reviewed by the sampling process. The paper presents us with the technique of data collection - binomial sampling, with all the appropriate elements of decision-making analysis. The model based on a combination of a priori distribution of the sampling process, using Bayes's theorem for compliance and audit subjective beliefs and information from the a priori probability of the empirical data. The resulting revised or posterior probabilities are then used to find the expected costs of non-compliance for each alternative and the choice of optimal strategy dedicated.