Abstract
A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack–McKendrick theory from 1927. This is our starting point. We explain the setup of the Kermack–McKendrick theory (passing to a discrete approach) and use medical information for specializing to a model called by us an adapted K-McK-model. It includes effects of vaccination, mass testing and mutants. We demonstrate the use of the model by applying it to the development in Germany and show, among others things, that a comparatively mild intervention reducing the time until quarantine by one day would lead to a drastic improvement.
Highlights
It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack–McKendrick theory from 1927
We explain the setup of the Kermack–McKendrick theory and use medical information for specializing to a model called by us an adapted K-McK-model
A decade ago Breda/Diekmann et al made the sharp remark that even experienced experts seem often to believe that Kermack and McKendrick’s famous paper of 1927 (Kermack and McKendrick 1927) is just about the standard SIR or SEIR model described by the well known ODE system [Breda et al 2012, p. 105]
Summary
A decade ago Breda/Diekmann et al made the sharp remark that even experienced experts seem often to believe that Kermack and McKendrick’s famous paper of 1927 (Kermack and McKendrick 1927) is just about the standard SIR or SEIR model described by the well known ODE system [Breda et al 2012, p. 105]. The present paper proposes a Kermack–McKendrick type model adapted to Covid-19, which differs from the widely used S(E)IR models and which in our eyes has a greater plausibility and applicability than the latter
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