Back-Calculation of Large Carnivore Populations in Finland in 1865–1915

Abstract

We estimated population abundances of the bear, lynx, wolf and wolverine in Finland in 1865–1915 by combining official bounty statistics with verified knowledge on annual intrinsic growth and mortality rates of these species. We used an annual backwards iteration method for all of these species, starting from a systematically-adjusted population size in 1915. According to our results, there had been approximately 1000 bears and an equal number of wolves in Finland until their decline started around 1875. As for lynx, it appears that its population increased markedly in the first quarter of our study period, but seemed not to have exceeded 3500 in the 19th century. Concurrently with the assumed strong growth of the lynx population, a marked increase took place in sheep and goats killed by large carnivores. The number of wolverines prior to 1885 appears to have been varying between 300 and 600.