Babies and Ballots: Timing of Childbirth and Voter Turnout

Abstract

What effect, if any, does the timing of a baby’s arrival have on voter turnout for parents? A newborn can impose physical burdens, upend day-to-day routines, and strain financial resources. We investigate whether, to what extent, and in what contexts the arrival of a new baby disrupts turnout. Using a big data approach, we merge two sources of administrative data from the state of California to estimate short-term interruptions in turnout writ large and across population subgroups. Using a linear probability model that regresses turnout on proximity of birth to Election Day, we find that parents whose newborns arrive close to or on Election Day turn out at a lower rate than parents whose newborns arrive farther away from Election Day. The disruptive effects of birth are disproportionately borne by mothers compared to fathers. Institutional features such as vote by mail can partially ameliorate the disruptive effects of birth on turnout.