Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change.

Peter J Mumby,Denny Kelso,Kenneth Broad,Kathryn Matthews,Thomas A Okey,Peter Tyedmers,Joanie A Kleypas,Polita Glynn,Megan Morikawa,Larry B Crowder,Stephan B Munch,Michael W Beck,James N Sanchirico,Jane Lubchenco,Elizabeth A Fulton

doi:10.1111/gcb.13698

Abstract

Climate change and ocean acidification are altering marine ecosystems and, from a human perspective, creating both winners and losers. Human responses to these changes are complex, but may result in reduced government investments in regulation, resource management, monitoring and enforcement. Moreover, a lack of peoples' experience of climate change may drive some towards attributing the symptoms of climate change to more familiar causes such as management failure. Taken together, we anticipate that management could become weaker and less effective as climate change continues. Using diverse case studies, including the decline of coral reefs, coastal defences from flooding, shifting fish stocks and the emergence of new shipping opportunities in the Arctic, we argue that human interests are better served by increased investments in resource management. But greater government investment in management does not simply mean more of "business-as-usual." Management needs to become more flexible, better at anticipating and responding to surprise, and able to facilitate change where it is desirable. A range of technological, economic, communication and governance solutions exists to help transform management. While not all have been tested, judicious application of the most appropriate solutions should help humanity adapt to novel circumstances and seek opportunity where possible.

Highlights

Global environmental changes combined with local and regional stressors are rapidly altering life in the ocean and the nature of the world’s coastlines
We argue that climate change could result in reduced government investments in resource agency budgets, monitoring and enforcement activities regardless of whether the perceived impacts of climate change are positive or negative
Coral reefs are one of the ecosystems most susceptible to climate change, largely because corals are highly sensitive to fluctuations in temperature, and because ocean acidification interferes with the process of calcification that underpins reef formation (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2007; Kleypas & Yates, 2009)

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

Global environmental changes combined with local and regional stressors are rapidly altering life in the ocean and the nature of the world’s coastlines. There is an implicit or explicit acceptance that resource management has a key role in helping humanity meet the challenges set forth by climate impacts on the oceans. We selected five case studies that provide a range of perceived human impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems (Figure 1). Coral reefs are one of the ecosystems most susceptible to climate change, largely because corals are highly sensitive to fluctuations in temperature, and because ocean acidification interferes with the process of calcification that underpins reef formation (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2007; Kleypas & Yates, 2009). Science clearly shows that management interventions can improve reef ecosystems (McCook et al, 2010) and that significant investments in local management are needed to maintain reef functioning under climate change (Anthony, 2016; Kennedy et al, 2013). Postponement of problems with greater cost in long term as fewer options available (may take longer to create green infrastructure)

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Findings

| CONCLUDING REMARKS