Abstract
Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.
Highlights
Human health effects associated with rising temperatures are expected to increase significantly by mid-to-late century
Three measures of temperature change were derived for each metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) to correspond with the heat response functions’’ (HRFs) used to assess health outcomes, including average temperature (AvgT), average apparent temperature (AvgapT), and minimum temperature (MinT)
Across the MSA-temperature metric combinations, the influence of variable heat management strategies on business as usual’’ (BAU) temperatures was found to range from an increase in mean warm season apparent temperature of 0.06uC to a reduction in minimum temperature of 0.57uC
Summary
Human health effects associated with rising temperatures are expected to increase significantly by mid-to-late century. A large body of work estimates an increase in mean global temperature from pre-industrial averages of more than 2uC by late century under mid-range emissions scenarios [1]. A smaller but growing body of work has sought to estimate the effects of projected warming on heat-related mortality. Employing health impact functions derived from epidemiological studies of historical warm season mortality rates, recent work projects an increase in annual heat-related mortality of between 3,500 and 27,000 deaths in the United States by mid-century [2]. The combined effects of urban heat island formation and the global greenhouse effect are projected to significantly increase the number of extreme heat events in urbanized regions [8]. The extent to which the urban heat island effect may further increase heat-related mortality is not well established
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
